Playing Poker with Tarot cards...
Predicting the future? It's a fool's game
You know the feeling, right?
There’s a joke by the American comedian Stephen Wright; ‘I stayed up all night playing poker with tarot cards. I got a full house and four people died.’
For me, this gag encapsulates two issues for those working in any of the ‘protective services’ required to anticipate and mitigate risk.
Predicting the future is tough.
In the game I write about (Policing), if you get it badly wrong? People can get hurt.
And so 2023, a year of bloody surprises, shuffles offstage. What will 2024 bring for those charged with protecting us? Happily, I no longer play poker with tarot cards. Nor am I a Silicone Valley futurologist or Nicholas Nassim Taleb, just an ex-copper who spent much of his service working around intelligence and risk.
I’m free to write about the stuff pinging my personal radar. Things I imagine I’ll be covering in 2024. We can all laugh at how wrong I was this time next year. Well, I hope so.
The collapse of the ‘Policing by Consent’ illusion will accelerate
Notting Hill Carnival, August 2023. Carnival has become a de facto ‘temporary autonomous zone’ of which any anarchist would be proud.
‘Policing by Consent’ is the Peelian principle the Public, by and large, accepts the authority of the Police (as opposed to having their authority imposed by the State). This, as most officers know, has been a polite fiction for years. Too many streets are run by quasi-feral gangs of phone camera-wielding thugs with no fear of anything except each other. Policing by consent is an illusion, furiously spun by the powers-that-be; like The Wizard of Oz, hiding inside his special bullshit machine.
The statistics speak for themselves. In London, violent offending has spiralled over the past five years. Then there’s property crime; as in many American cities, a lack of resources and an overwhelmed criminal justice system (run by well-intentioned ‘progressives’) has effectively decriminalised shoplifting and petty theft.
Just wait until Fentanyl hits us, just as crack cocaine did from the States in the late 80s and early 90s.
The push-me, pull-me panic that afflicts policing means only a few plates can be spun at once; in 2023 the Job concentrated on bad apples and safeguarding. Meanwhile, gang violence, volume crime and public order filled the vacuum . Recent surveys show the 2012 funding apocalypse has finally been realised: half of UK police forces are failing to investigate crime properly.
Add to this an environment where police use of force is obsessively scrutinized by activists and prosecutors - one where the State has effectively abandoned even notional support for robust policing - and you’ve got the ingredients for a dystopian civilizational breakdown. As I’ve said before, Rome wasn’t built in a day. It didn’t fall in one, either. This is the ‘new normal’, right? As I wrote here, we’re living in the future, baby!
So, in 2024 I imagine I’ll continue to catalogue this decline, as coppers find themselves increasingly impotent in the face of well-armed gangs operating in a virtually consequence-free environment. Then I’ll read articles by broadsheet journalists living in inner-London postcodes - the sort of people who wring their hands when it comes to use of force - berating the lack of police action as their kids have their umpteenth iPhone robbed.
Something will give. It always does. Will it in 2024?
The return of ‘70s-style radical extremism?
The Baader-Meinhof Gang; over-educated, under-employed middle-class youths, embracing far-Left ideologies and radicalised by Middle Eastern politics. Sound familiar?
It’s often necessary, when peering into the future, to look to the past. We’re suddenly living in an era when its become fashionable to equivocate over antisemitism, indulged by senior academics and cultural figures. Our police wring their hands and declare the situation ‘problematic.’ And just like the 1970s, after a decade of economic decline and political mismanagement, confidence in Western capitalism isn’t just faltering - it’s flatlined.
Given my policing areas of interest, this is a subject I know I’ll be returning to in 2024. The difference now, though, is ‘The Establishment’ is the enabler of leftish views. The sort of views that, in the 70s, might lead to someone opening a file on you. Now, it’s the other way around; voting to keep Nigel Farage in the jungle on ‘I’m a Celebrity’ is probably enough to get you reported to PREVENT.
Given this leftwards shift in ‘elite’ views, does this mean:
(a) Young, middle-class activists radicalised by issues such as Palestine will see legitimate political pressure valves / routes to express their concerns? This would lead to more nonviolent (although still possibly unlawful) routes?
Or;
(b) Accelerate / normalise violence and direct action? And what would that look like in the mid-2020s? I think Tarquin and Jocasta sourcing AKs before kidnapping millionaire industrialists is unlikely. Besides, hijacking airliners? Think of the carbon footprint, rerouting an Airbus to Entebbe.
Note I deliberately omit young people from marginalised British Muslim communities who already possess an affinity for the Palestinian cause - the 70s radicals of western Europe were predominantly white and middle-class.
The middle classes will also play little or no part in the threat from the ‘Far Right’, which since October has primarily manifested itself as a public order issue. I’d also suggest labelling all counter-demonstrations ‘Far Right’ as unhelpful - as if insisting any views contrary to the prevailing consensus are somehow fascist-adjacent is unlikely to foster dialogue between conflicted parties.
Spy Catching
Not unlike the ‘70s, there’s also a Wild West vibe when it comes to hostile state actors operating in the West.
Although there’s nothing new about foreign intelligence services operating in London - which remains one of the Globe’s great world cities - the espionage (and counterespionage) game heated up in 2023. Whether it’s Russian spies, Chinese political-industrial spying / influence operations (which, to be fair, HMG more or less invited) or Iranian state-sponsored thuggery, hostile actors view the UK as an increasingly permissive environment. The conflicts in Ukraine and Israel only up the ante.
So the thinking goes in security circles, as America steps back from its post-war role as global cop, foreign states scent weakness in Western resolve. To the point where hitherto passive international actors such as India are accused of assassinating regime opponents… in sleepy ‘ol Canada.
The UK Government has introduced new legislation to address the growing problem of foreign espionage on British soil, the National Security Act 2023. The question is, who will assist the Security Service, MI5, to enforce it? The UK counterterrorism police network says it stands ready. If MI5 simply wants a ‘crime squad’ to feel the collars of foreign spies, then the current CT network (which, in London, consists of SO15) is able to provide.
Yet, as a former special branch guy, I know the importance of long-term, discreet intelligence work developing relationships with communities linked to the activities of hostile intelligence services. Some of this work will be covert. Some will be controversial. Those techniques, and the appetite to use them, have atrophied.
Who knows? Maybe something like Special Branch will return. The generation of senior officers who disbanded it have more or less retired - lessening the sting of admitting getting shot of it completely was ill-advised. This is something else I’ll keep my beady eye on it 2024.
And, yes, I’ll be watching our friends at the National Crime Agency. Remits mean resources and promotions. Will they try to become the UK’s counterespionage agency too?
The Police ‘Churn Vortex’ will grow
‘I knew I should have applied to be a train driver.’
I’m also interested in bread-and-butter issues impacting on UK Policing PLC. Hey, where are all those potential Jack and Jane Bauers going to come from if police services can’t recruit people and keep them for more than five years?
I wrote about ‘Churn’ here, the idea that a new flexible ‘non-career’ copper police service was The Future. Which is, and always was, utter bollocks spouted by shameless senior police managers toadying up to the Home Office.
Most of the ‘shock-horror’ police incompetence stories run by the media nowadays seem, to me, to turn on a key issue - the public-facing police workforce is overwhelmingly inexperienced and poorly-led. This is a direct consequence of the May / Winsor reforms (no, I won’t stop banging on about it). Another reason why this government is so execrable is its ongoing punishment of policing for measures they themselves inflicted upon it.
Young officers are voting with their feet - 2023 was the year when more resigned early than retired. The Met was unable to meet its government-mandated ‘uplift’ recruitment targets (and was punished financially as a result).
Maybe I’m missing something here? Take a poorly-paid job. Make it low-status and universally loathed. Make it even more stressful and violent. Subject it to hostile 24/7 media scrutiny. Make it an Aunt Sally for every pressure group to bash. Then wonder why less quality people want to join?
Honestly, I’ve no idea why there’s a recruitment crisis. It’s a mystery I shall continue to ponder over the coming year.
‘Blue Tickets’, scrutiny and accountability
2023 was big on the scrutiny of armed policing, not so big on supporting AFOs
A ‘Blue Ticket’ is the colloquial term for the Met Police firearms permit. And, in 2023, a hundred or so Met officers threatened to hand theirs in after the post-incident treatment of two officers involved in shootings. I wrote about the subject back in September, when it looked like the MPS was facing a revolt by disaffected MO19 officers.
After a year when, quite rightly, the focus was on the Met’s more egregious failings (with the publication of Baroness Casey’s report back in March), many officers felt the ‘open season’ on police accountability had gone too far. The Independent Office for Police Misconduct, which has always had a strained relationship with the Police Federation, became even more political and desperate for relevance. Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley weighed in on the subject, no doubt terrified by the prospect of policing London with no armed cover.
No case more amply demonstrates the IOPC’s lack of any sense of proportionality than that of Pc Paul Fisher, who in 2020 pranged a police car while responding to a live terrorist incident in south London. The IOPC saw fit to prosecute him for dangerous driving, despite no complaints being made by the public. Pc Fisher was acquitted of a charge of dangerous driving by a jury at Southwark Crown Court in 2023, demonstrating the glacial pace at which the IOPC manages a road traffic infringement.
This incident should’ve been dealt with by a grumpy garage sergeant marking Paul’s MPS driving permit and possibly ordering a reclassification drive, not a criminal prosecution. As I wrote at the time, police officers increasingly face unduly harsh sanctions for taking risks on the public’s behalf. Eventually, there will be a tipping point as coppers realise the risks simply aren’t worth it.
And, at IOPC towers, I doubt there will be any soul-searching about the necessity of their prosecution.
Now, if I come across as an apologist for police misbehaviour, please read my numerous articles about my five years as a police anticorruption investigator. Here’s one. And here’s another. So I don’t think the IOPC are rubbish from the comfort of my armchair. I think they’re rubbish because I’ve done the job myself.
I predict 2024 will see more drama, as contested police firearms cases go to court in an election year. The Labour Party will want to burnish their law and order credentials with mainstream voters, while still keeping their leftish police-bashing activists on a leash.
Which brings me onto…
Election Games
He’s a former Human Rights lawyer. What could possibly go wrong?
There will be an election in 2024, quite possibly in May. The only source of political intelligence I trust - the bookies - suggests it’s in the bag for Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. Having said that, the Conservatives will undoubtedly fight a last-ditch battle to cling onto power. How will law and order play out on the doorstep? I’ll be keeping an eye on political bullshit from all sides.
The Tories are a busted flush. Since 2010 the Conservative party eviscerated policing, part of a long-term plan hatched by Ken Clarke in the late 1980s and early 1990s (when David Cameron was his SpAd). Plod needed putting in their place. So how, with a straight face, the Conservatives can say they have a plan for law, order and policing is beyond me. Best they stick to their triumphant management of the economy, immigration and taxation, eh? Oh. Maybe not.
This leaves Labour, who’ve run with a cunning strategy of not revealing any substantive policies. Why would they, given the mess the other side are making? Given Keir Starmer’s ‘Centrist Dad’, triangulating style, I’m not expecting any fireworks. He’ll play his ‘former DPP’ card (dog-eared, as it happens), but at heart the PM-in-waiting is a classic man of the centre Left; a reflexive law and order softie.
Having said that, I worked in the Met under three London Mayors - Ken Livingstone was left-wing but supportive of police in a way Khan simply isn’t. Khan, it will be remembered, is a former (yes) Human Rights lawyer too. To misquote Brendan Behan, there isn’t a situation so dire a human rights lawyer couldn’t make it worse.
So I’m expecting the usual bromides from Labour - more cops on the street. More cuddliness for hoodies. More action on toxic police culture. Nothing much, though, on stop and search or actually arresting people. Or, of course, incarcerating them. Which brings me back to my original point about the disintegration of policing by consent.
My view is that both mainstream parties are hamstrung by ideological stasis and a denial of economic reality. This will accelerate the decay of the wider British criminal justice system. Until, of course, it collapses.
Cheery, ain’t I?
So begin hoarding tinned food, water and a diesel generator for 2024, dear readers. Seriously, it won’t be that bad. Just remember to buy a property on a hill with good sightlines across the surrounding terrain (etc). Oh, and if you need something to read, why not check out my new book, Red Labyrinth?
I’ll see you on the other side!
Happy New Year,
Dom
It remains a mystery to me how the Conservative Party, especially at the "grassroots", accepted the metropolitan elite view of policing as the last unreformed public institution and simply said nowt. I would include the many local councillors and others, yes, even those were elected to be a PCC. First, it was reform and then cuts to funding. My own local police had to "save" £27million this year. Will anyone say loudly what should we stop doing then Home Secretary etc?
Spot on as ever Dom. The crisis in policing, as you say, has been brought on from 1989 onwards, slowly gathering speed as the Job we all loved careered, increasingly out of control, downhill, until the inevitable point of no return, when everything crashes and burns. The police have lost the support of politicians from all sides, police management (sic) is a joke, the IOPC shine a bright light into already lit corners and pillory the boys and girls on the street for doing their job. Unless and until the Government of the day says 'enough is enough' (unlikely, I know) the public will continue to get the service they are granted, not what they need.