What a thought provoking future history. It would be easy to dismiss it as pure fiction and highly unlikely to occur. However, who; at the turn of the 21st Century would have predicted the state of policing in the 2020’s? PCA’s, dubious local accountability, reduced terms and conditions, pay awards that failed to meet the needs of police recruits, denigration from social and all other forms of media. All this making the recruitment of quality officers almost impossible.
With all my heart I hope your paper remains a fictional one, but what if?
When it was SOCA it was made up of mainly ex-Customs and a lot of former county officers with no great love of the MPS. As NCA it was augmented by a lot of civil servants - it's basically part of the civil service with warranted staff. It's a funny old outfit, some of the senior staff are hilariously unqualified for their jobs from an operational POV. They also display the sort of defensiveness and pomposity as bad as anything you'll find in the Met. They are, however, more malleable than the civilian police. They are also The Future.
I joined the Met in 77 and retired in 08. The Met has always been in a state of crisis. In 77 Operation Countryman was rumbling on. The 80's saw the Scarman enquiry, inner city riots and the miners strike, in the 90's we had MacPherson. Nothing changes. Your view of the future is credible. I should say I used to love dystopian Sci Fi or alternate history, but now I'm living in a dystopian world I'm not so sure.
The question is: where do we go from here? All of the various commentators from the media/political class have their own ideas about policing and to me they are all mutually exclusive. To the RW types the police are woke, to the LW types the police are fascist stormtroopers.
I don't think any of the political parties have advanced a credible model for policing in the C21. The Conservative party are now run by smash it all up nihilists, the Labour party - I'm not sure yet. I think a C21 model of policing in the UK in the UK should run on a National/Regional/Local model but we need to ensure (somehow) that it remains subject to proper scrutiny and yet avoids political interference.
We live in interesting times and I'm not sanguine about the future.
Brilliant insightful view of a potential future. The continued and relentless politicisation of policing will result in the breakdown of policing by consent. Pawns in a game the players do not understand due to their ambitions, arrogance and vanity.
The line blue line will endure.....fingers crossed
A troublingly credible dystopian vision. Having now got around to reading the Casey review, a couple of things stand out. First, that after excoriating the Met in the opening pages, it is then surprisingly sympathetic and supportive of front-line coppers like the BCUs and Public Protection. However, on consideration she could be accused of a one-person good cop/bad cop exercise, since at least three dogs did not bark in the night:
1. Despite referring repeatedly to the fundamental fact that there isn't enough cash, the report summary and recommendations make no mention of an increased budget. One wonders how the recommended changes are to be financed - are senior commanders simply to reverse their earlier choice and deprive TSG and SO19 of resources to restore the front line? Will the Baroness and the politicians then hold themselves accountable if these fail, probably in a high-profile fashion such as during a state visit?
2. There is no mention I can see of the role of the Mayor. He appears to have 'the prerogative of the harlot through the ages: influence without accountability'. His position is immensely powerful, as was shown by the defenestration of Cressida Dick. Should he not be part of any solution, his meetings with top Met commanders minuted and transparent, and his choices reflected in the recommended periodic reviews?
3. There is no mention of whether the public have any responsibility to help with the restoration of mutual trust. Without straying into racially-charged debate, it is disingenuous to eg cite the fact that BAME Londoners are stopped/arrested more than white ones without any context of (a) relative rather than absolute arrest rates; and (b) the incidence of knife crime. Yes, it's a very complex issue, but that is exactly why it needs to be addressed in the report.
Speaking of accountability, I also wonder whether the proposed rather complex monitoring structures will not spawn their own expensive bureaucracy ; and whether any of the bodies or individuals will have to account for the priorities they effectively impose? Quis custodiet...
And finally ... it's a shame she never even referred to a core legal problem, that of innocent until proven guilty. The effects are similar to those of rape accusations: the damage done to individuals by a false accusation is considerable, yet there is little or no redress if found innocent. In the case of rape, this is perhaps a price society is willing to pay to reduce the incidence of a serious crime (collateral damage). However, I suspect false accusations will be far more common for police misconduct; and unlike rape accusations their side-effects on morale, recruitment, available resource and public image will be substantial. If Casey believes this, too, is a price worth paying, it would be nice to see it stated clearly.
Although Casey was undoubtedly independent, she seems to be of the view specialist stuff has to go to third party agencies. I think she considers a 'less is more' MPS optimal for core delivery. I formed the view she doesn't really have much time for the crunchy, 'kinetic', end of policing (I also note virtually all her team were female - a representation issue of her own to ponder perhaps?). This doesn't make her criticism less valid, but nor does it make her the ultimate authority on policing a world city in the 21st Century (organised crime, terrorism, guns and all that stuff). And, yes, the public need to take a good look at themselves too. Do they, or do they not, want to be policed in a system of policing by consent? Ship in a load of French CRS to police London for a month or two, then ask them.
Reap what you sow. The shortsightedness of politicians, especially the Tories always seen as the party of law and order is breathtaking. Without the stability of a reasonably functioning criminal justice system from the police, courts and prisons, society cannot prosper.
I hope to God that this never happens however there are several elements that are quite possible given the current climate. I never thought that I would see uniformed Met Officers running away from a crowd, (not a tactical withdrawal which is very different & orderly). Whatever happened to hold your ground and using a bit of reasonable force? Courage & knowledge seems to be severely lacking in the current cadre of senior public order Officers. Gone is the brave decision making, backed by years of experience & training. The current cost of living crisis is going to result in increased crime rates. The poor state of the criminal justice system means that so many cases will fall by the wayside. Criminals will become emboldened knowing that their offending is unlikely to end in a jail sentence. The Police really are fighting a loosing battle & have both hands tied behind their back.
What a thought provoking future history. It would be easy to dismiss it as pure fiction and highly unlikely to occur. However, who; at the turn of the 21st Century would have predicted the state of policing in the 2020’s? PCA’s, dubious local accountability, reduced terms and conditions, pay awards that failed to meet the needs of police recruits, denigration from social and all other forms of media. All this making the recruitment of quality officers almost impossible.
With all my heart I hope your paper remains a fictional one, but what if?
I mentioned PCA, I meant PCC’s, Police and Crime Commissioner’s. They replaced the former Police Authorities.
The NCA seem to fancy themselves as one of the intelligence agencies ... i doubt the sentiment is reciprocated.
I wasn’t overly impressed with NCA officers, bar a couple on a personal level.
When it was SOCA it was made up of mainly ex-Customs and a lot of former county officers with no great love of the MPS. As NCA it was augmented by a lot of civil servants - it's basically part of the civil service with warranted staff. It's a funny old outfit, some of the senior staff are hilariously unqualified for their jobs from an operational POV. They also display the sort of defensiveness and pomposity as bad as anything you'll find in the Met. They are, however, more malleable than the civilian police. They are also The Future.
I joined the Met in 77 and retired in 08. The Met has always been in a state of crisis. In 77 Operation Countryman was rumbling on. The 80's saw the Scarman enquiry, inner city riots and the miners strike, in the 90's we had MacPherson. Nothing changes. Your view of the future is credible. I should say I used to love dystopian Sci Fi or alternate history, but now I'm living in a dystopian world I'm not so sure.
The question is: where do we go from here? All of the various commentators from the media/political class have their own ideas about policing and to me they are all mutually exclusive. To the RW types the police are woke, to the LW types the police are fascist stormtroopers.
I don't think any of the political parties have advanced a credible model for policing in the C21. The Conservative party are now run by smash it all up nihilists, the Labour party - I'm not sure yet. I think a C21 model of policing in the UK in the UK should run on a National/Regional/Local model but we need to ensure (somehow) that it remains subject to proper scrutiny and yet avoids political interference.
We live in interesting times and I'm not sanguine about the future.
I think your ‘prediction’ isn’t far off! I know people working for the NCA…God help us…enough said 🤔 A great article!
Interesting.
Brilliant insightful view of a potential future. The continued and relentless politicisation of policing will result in the breakdown of policing by consent. Pawns in a game the players do not understand due to their ambitions, arrogance and vanity.
The line blue line will endure.....fingers crossed
A troublingly credible dystopian vision. Having now got around to reading the Casey review, a couple of things stand out. First, that after excoriating the Met in the opening pages, it is then surprisingly sympathetic and supportive of front-line coppers like the BCUs and Public Protection. However, on consideration she could be accused of a one-person good cop/bad cop exercise, since at least three dogs did not bark in the night:
1. Despite referring repeatedly to the fundamental fact that there isn't enough cash, the report summary and recommendations make no mention of an increased budget. One wonders how the recommended changes are to be financed - are senior commanders simply to reverse their earlier choice and deprive TSG and SO19 of resources to restore the front line? Will the Baroness and the politicians then hold themselves accountable if these fail, probably in a high-profile fashion such as during a state visit?
2. There is no mention I can see of the role of the Mayor. He appears to have 'the prerogative of the harlot through the ages: influence without accountability'. His position is immensely powerful, as was shown by the defenestration of Cressida Dick. Should he not be part of any solution, his meetings with top Met commanders minuted and transparent, and his choices reflected in the recommended periodic reviews?
3. There is no mention of whether the public have any responsibility to help with the restoration of mutual trust. Without straying into racially-charged debate, it is disingenuous to eg cite the fact that BAME Londoners are stopped/arrested more than white ones without any context of (a) relative rather than absolute arrest rates; and (b) the incidence of knife crime. Yes, it's a very complex issue, but that is exactly why it needs to be addressed in the report.
Speaking of accountability, I also wonder whether the proposed rather complex monitoring structures will not spawn their own expensive bureaucracy ; and whether any of the bodies or individuals will have to account for the priorities they effectively impose? Quis custodiet...
And finally ... it's a shame she never even referred to a core legal problem, that of innocent until proven guilty. The effects are similar to those of rape accusations: the damage done to individuals by a false accusation is considerable, yet there is little or no redress if found innocent. In the case of rape, this is perhaps a price society is willing to pay to reduce the incidence of a serious crime (collateral damage). However, I suspect false accusations will be far more common for police misconduct; and unlike rape accusations their side-effects on morale, recruitment, available resource and public image will be substantial. If Casey believes this, too, is a price worth paying, it would be nice to see it stated clearly.
Although Casey was undoubtedly independent, she seems to be of the view specialist stuff has to go to third party agencies. I think she considers a 'less is more' MPS optimal for core delivery. I formed the view she doesn't really have much time for the crunchy, 'kinetic', end of policing (I also note virtually all her team were female - a representation issue of her own to ponder perhaps?). This doesn't make her criticism less valid, but nor does it make her the ultimate authority on policing a world city in the 21st Century (organised crime, terrorism, guns and all that stuff). And, yes, the public need to take a good look at themselves too. Do they, or do they not, want to be policed in a system of policing by consent? Ship in a load of French CRS to police London for a month or two, then ask them.
Reap what you sow. The shortsightedness of politicians, especially the Tories always seen as the party of law and order is breathtaking. Without the stability of a reasonably functioning criminal justice system from the police, courts and prisons, society cannot prosper.
I hope to God that this never happens however there are several elements that are quite possible given the current climate. I never thought that I would see uniformed Met Officers running away from a crowd, (not a tactical withdrawal which is very different & orderly). Whatever happened to hold your ground and using a bit of reasonable force? Courage & knowledge seems to be severely lacking in the current cadre of senior public order Officers. Gone is the brave decision making, backed by years of experience & training. The current cost of living crisis is going to result in increased crime rates. The poor state of the criminal justice system means that so many cases will fall by the wayside. Criminals will become emboldened knowing that their offending is unlikely to end in a jail sentence. The Police really are fighting a loosing battle & have both hands tied behind their back.
Depressingly likely to be how it’ll end up